每日备份 2026-03-27

skills/daily-stock-analysis/references/technical-analysis.md

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+# Technical Analysis Reference
+
+Use technical analysis as a decision support layer, not as a standalone certainty signal.
+
+## 1. Trend Framework
+
+1. Moving averages:
+- 20/50/200-period moving averages as baseline trend map.
+- Bullish regime: price above key moving averages with supportive slope.
+- Bearish regime: price below key moving averages with negative slope.
+
+2. Trend strength:
+- Confirm with higher highs/higher lows (uptrend) or lower highs/lower lows (downtrend).
+
+## 2. Momentum Framework
+
+1. RSI:
+- Overbought > 70, oversold < 30.
+- Use divergence vs price as an early warning, not a standalone trigger.
+
+2. MACD:
+- Track line/signal crossovers and histogram trend.
+- Prefer signals aligned with broader trend.
+
+## 3. Volatility and Structure
+
+1. ATR context:
+- Use ATR expansion/contraction to assess regime change risk.
+
+2. Bollinger context:
+- Squeeze can precede expansion.
+- Band walk can persist in strong trends.
+
+## 4. Support and Resistance
+
+Map levels from:
+
+- Recent swing highs/lows
+- Volume clusters
+- Moving-average confluence
+- Psychological round numbers
+
+Use level breaks with volume confirmation where possible.
+
+## 5. Volume Confirmation
+
+1. Breakout quality improves with volume expansion.
+2. Weak volume breakouts carry higher failure risk.
+3. Divergence between price trend and volume trend can signal exhaustion.
+
+## 6. Multi-Timeframe Alignment
+
+1. Use higher timeframe (weekly/daily) for primary bias.
+2. Use lower timeframe (daily/intraday where available) for timing.
+3. Do not let lower timeframe noise override higher timeframe structure without strong evidence.
+
+## 7. Signal Quality Rules
+
+1. Require at least two independent confirmations before strong directional calls.
+2. Mark low-confidence calls when indicators conflict.
+3. Define invalidation level for every directional view.
+
+## 8. Market-Specific Notes (US/CN/HK)
+
+1. Liquidity and session structure differ by market.
+2. Gap behavior and close auction effects may vary.
+3. Technical indicator reliability can degrade during event-driven sessions.
+
+## 9. Daily Output Guidance
+
+At minimum provide:
+
+- Trend state (bullish/neutral/bearish)
+- 2-3 key levels
+- RSI/MACD summary
+- volume confirmation status
+- invalidation condition